
John McCain is heading into the Minnesota caucus next week with national front-runner status and an apparent edge in Minnesota's GOP contest, too.
The Arizona senator notched his third primary win in Florida, taking the lead with 97 convention delegates. Former governors Mitt Romney of Massachusetts and Mike Huckabee of Arkansas have secured 74 and 29 delegates, respectively. Libertarian Ron Paul has six delegates and former New York mayor Rudy Giuliani dropped out after winning just two delegates.
McCain has out-fundraised his rivals in Minnesota and is expected to benefit from his ties to Gov. Tim Pawlenty, who stumped for McCain in Iowa, Florida and New Hampshire.
"The Pawlenty factor should make McCain a pretty strong candidate,"said Hamline University political science professor David Schultz. "It's almost like the icing on the cake. The fact that he's got that momentum going into Super Tuesday in Minnesota, where you now have the governor and a lot of the state Republican party behind him."
Huckabee is also expected to do well in Minnesota due to the state's strong religious conservative base and his endorsement by state GOP chair Ron Carey, said Schultz.
This is the first election cycle in which Minnesota's caucuses land on the Feb. 5 Super Tuesday date. Last year party leaders opted to move the contest up from March in hopes of drawing more attention from candidates and national media. A flurry of other states had the same idea, however, and Minnesota is now one of 24 states sharing the spotlight.
Unlike past primary seasons, Minnesota's delegates will be counted before either party crowns a nominee. However, with higher-delegate states like New York and California at stake on the same day few resources have been poured into wooing Republicans in Minnesota. The state also might not have the right reputation to draw conservative candidates.
"The trouble with Minnesota, why often it doesn't get a lot of play, particularly from Republicans, is they consider it a Democratic state, which is not exactly right," said Steve Frank, a political science professor and director of the St. Cloud State University Survey.
They haven't typically ignored the state when it comes to fundraising.
According to the latest available Federal Elections Commission data, Republican candidates have raised $900,034 in Minnesota. McCain leads receipts with $338,864. Giuliani raked in $333,890, much of it last summer. Romney has raised $77,040, Paul $54,490 and Huckabee $5,912.
Information about precinct caucus locations is available on the
Minnesota GOP website.
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