NFL Preview - Jacksonville (2-3) At Denver (4-1)
POSTED: 11:12 am CDT October 10,
2008
By Tony Moss, NFL Editor -- (Sports Network) - The Denver Broncos had better enjoy their homefield surroundings while they last. Mike Shanahan's first-place club, which will host the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday, won't be seeing much of Invesco Field at Mile High until right around Thanksgiving, when they hope that their current state of control over the AFC West has remained firm. The tilt against the Jags will be the Broncos' fourth home game in their first six contests, and when it's over, Denver will be within friendly confines just once over the ensuing 40 days. Included in a stretch that will see the team play three of its next four games on the road are trips to play the Patriots (10/20) and Browns (11/6) in primetime, as well as a meeting with the resurgent Falcons (11/16) at the Georgia Dome. The only home date for Denver over the following month-plus comes against the suddenly-a-tough-out Dolphins on Nov. 2nd. So far, the Broncos have known how to take advantage of their ...errr... advantage. Denver is 3-0 at home this season, remaining perfect by outlasting the Buccaneers, 16-13, last week. The victory, coupled with a loss by the Chargers in Miami, pushed the Broncos' lead in the AFC West back to two games. Shanahan and his crew enter Week 6 with a six-game home winning streak dating back to last season, with their last home defeat coming to Green Bay in overtime (19-13) last Oct. 29. Jacksonville, meanwhile, enters Sunday's game seeking a measure of consistency. The Jags have been a mild disappointment thus far, as a flurry of injuries and at times uninspired play has lowered the stock of a team that some had billed as a Super Bowl contender coming into 2008. Jack Del Rio's squad failed to ride the wave of a loud, partisan Sunday night crowd last Sunday, when the Pittsburgh Steelers came to town and handed the Jags a 26-21 setback. The defeat, which moved Jacksonville to third place in the AFC South, also put a halt to a two-game winning streak that had included thrilling wins over the Colts (23-21) and Texans (30-27 in overtime). SERIES HISTORY The all-time regular season series between Denver and Jacksonville is deadlocked, 3-3, with the Jaguars evening the series by virtue of a 23-14 win at Invesco Field in Week 3 of last season. The Broncos won the previous meeting, scoring a 20-7 road win in Week 4 of the 2005 season. Denver's last home win in the series occurred in 1998. The clubs have also split two postseason matchups, with Jacksonville scoring a 30-27 road victory in a 1996 AFC Divisional Playoff and Denver returning the favor with a 42-17 home victory in an AFC Divisional Playoff the following season. Shanahan is 4-4 all-time against Jacksonville, including playoffs, and is 1-2 head-to-head versus the Jags' Del Rio. Del Rio is 2-1 as a head coach against Denver. WHEN THE JAGUARS HAVE THE BALL One of the most disappointing elements of the Jaguars thus far has been the running game, which has managed to rank just 19th in NFL rushing offense (108.8) and got very little going against a banged-up Steelers front seven on Sunday night. Fred Taylor (232 rushing yards, 9 receptions) was held to 19 yards on 10 carries for the night, while Maurice Jones-Drew (176 rushing yards, 3 TD, 19 receptions) scored a touchdown but finished with seven yards on just five totes. Jones-Drew also added six grabs for 23 yards. The good news for the running game is the possible return of center Brad Meester, who has missed the first five games with a torn biceps. Meester's would-be return is also a positive development for quarterback David Garrard (983 passing yards, 3 TD, 4 INT), who has been sacked 13 times and already thrown more interceptions than he did in all of 2008. Garrard threw a TD pass to tight end Marcedes Lewis against Pittsburgh, and wideout Mike Walker (12 receptions) emerged with six catches for 107 yards, Walker is doubtful for Sunday with a knee problem, which could mean more touches for Matt Jones (23 receptions, 1 TD). Jacksonville will likely go to the ground as a means of attacking a Denver defense that ranks last in the league in yards allowed per carry (5.2) and 25th in NFL rushing defense (134 yards per game). Complicating matters for the Broncos this week is the questionable status of two members of the front seven - defensive end Ebenezer Ekuban (groin) and outside linebacker Boss Bailey (calf). Linebackers Nate Webster (40 tackles) and D.J. Williams (45 tackles, 2 sacks) have been the Broncos most interested in run-stopping this year, as starting tackles Dewayne Robertson (4 tackles) and Marcus Thomas (8 tackles, 1 INT) have been mostly invisible. The Broncos enter Week 6 ranked just 30th in NFL pass defense (254.4 yards per game), but limited Tampa Bay to 181 yards through the air last week and sacked Brian Griese and Jeff Garcia a total of three times. End Elvis Dumervil (4 tackles) had his first sack of the year in the contest, and cornerback Champ Bailey (21 tackles, 1 INT) chipped in with five tackles. WHEN THE BRONCOS HAVE THE BALL Jay Cutler (1502 passing yards, 10 TD, 4 INT) and the Broncos have been as prolific as any passing attack in the league this side of New Orleans, ranking second in NFL aerial offense (296.8) yards per game. But injury problems could hamper that standing this week. Tight end Tony Scheffler (groin) is out, rookie wideout Eddie Royal (ankle) is questionable, and the absence of running back Selvin Young (groin) could have a negative trickle-down effect for the passing game. Cutler figures to look often to Brandon Marshall (34 receptions, 3 TD), and Brandon Stokley (21 receptions, 1 TD) is set to get more opportunities than usual from his position in the slot. The absence of Young will cast a spotlight on veteran Michael Pittman (119 rushing yards, 4 TD, 5 receptions) and usual backup Andre Hall (144 rushing yards). Pittman led the team with 39 yards on just six carries last week, while Hall carried five times for 13 yards in the win. Cutler will try to exploit the weaknesses of a Jacksonville defense that has ranked a disappointing 26th in the league against the pass (254.4 yards per game). The Jaguars got an interception return for a touchdown against the Steelers' Ben Roethlisberger last week, that going to cornerback Rashean Mathis (15 tackles, 2 INT) in the first quarter, but otherwise failed to place pressure on the quarterback or his team's beleaguered offensive line. Ends Reggie Hayward (5 tackles, 1.5 sacks) and Quentin Groves (7 tackles, 1.5 sacks) have combined for three of the Jags' modest total of eight sacks through the first five games. Jacksonville ranks a more respectable 15th in the league against the run (106.8 yards per game), but allowed Steelers backups Mewelde Moore and Gary Russell to combined for 124 yards on 23 combined carries (5.4 yards per carry) on Sunday. Tackle John Henderson (18 tackles, 1 sack) and middle linebacker Mike Peterson (28 tackles) have been among the club's most dependable run-stoppers. FANTASY FOCUS The Jaguars don't have a can't-miss fantasy starter at this stage, but because of the matchup against the Broncos' soft run defense, starting Taylor and/or Jones-Drew is something to seriously consider. Playing Garrard or any member of the Jacksonville pass-catching corps is way more risky, and the Jaguars defense - once a solid play - has been mostly quiet in the play-making department this year. Jags kicker Josh Scobee should be in position to make some kicks this week. Cutler may not have Royal or Scheffler this week, but the presence of Marshall and Stokley in the lineup should help him come close to his normal level of productivity. Tight end Daniel Graham could also see his numbers jump with Scheffler absent, and Pittman and Hall should put up some numbers with Young out. Matt Prater has become a bona fide fantasy starter due to his big leg and frequent chances, but the Denver defense resides on waiver wires from coast to coast. OVERALL ANALYSIS Both of these teams have been hard to pin down, since each has played strong football at times and also shown the ability to lose games they should have won. Both squads also have major injuries that place them at less than 100 percent heading into this contest, but those of the Broncos could be more severe, at least in regard to this week. Denver would probably be closer to 1-4 if it weren't for their passing game, and that part of the attack isn't going to flow as easily with two of its biggest components out of the lineup. The Broncos will have a chance to win this one, but we bet the defense won't make the big stop necessary to put Shanahan and company in the win column again. Sports Network Predicted Outcome: Jaguars 23, Broncos 22
Copyright 2008 Courtesy of The Sports Network.






